Climate change impact on small scale western ghat catchment, India

Mudbhatkal, Amogh (2015) Climate change impact on small scale western ghat catchment, India. In: HYDRO 2015 INTERNATIONAL, 17-19 December 2015, Roorkee, India.

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Climate change impact on small scale western ghat catchment, India

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Abstract

The Western Ghats of India is an environmentally and ecologically sensitive, mountainous, forest region. The
present investigation focusses on the impact of climate change on surface hydrology of the east flowing river
basin of western ghats. The Malaprabha river of Karnataka, which is a tributary of Krishna river represents the
sub-humid climatic regime. The basin has an areal extent of 550 km2 and a run-off of 23.70 TMC. The
forecasted meteorological parameters obtained through a Regional Climate Model have been used in
conjunction with conceptual rainfall-runoff model (ARNO). This model incorporates soil moisture feedback into
hydrological response. The rainfall, temperature and the evapotranspiration are the intrinsic parameters of the
hydrologic cycle. Consequently, these are also the major driving factors of change in hydrological response due
to climate change. For the assessment of impact of rainfall pattern on rainfall-runoff modelling and the
evaporation dynamics, the ARNO model has been used. A spilt-data method has been adopted in the present
study and the model is calibrated using the observed data from 1980 to 1994 and has been validated for the
period 1995 to 2004. After this, the simulation of the hydrological response of the basin has been carried out for
the period 2011 to 2070. The simulated hydrological response from the ARNO model indicates the changing
trends in precipitation pattern and surface hydrological variables exist within the range of inter-annual
variability. However, the temperature shows a clearly increasing trend of 0.250C per decade. The discharge has
been forecasted to increase at the rate of 260 m3 per decade. Interestingly, it was also predicted that, there could
be shifting of monsoon to an earlier date with reduced peak flow of 550 cumecs as compared to 850 cumecs at
present. The results also reveal that, the post-monsoon run-off will decrease at the rate of 9.15 m3 per decade.

Keywords:ARNO model, Climate Change, PRECIS Climate Data, Western Ghats of India, Malaprabha River
Subjects:F Physical Sciences > F860 Climatology
F Physical Sciences > F840 Physical Geography
F Physical Sciences > F891 Geographical Information Systems
F Physical Sciences > F852 Hydrology
Divisions:College of Science > School of Geography
ID Code:49901
Deposited On:27 Jun 2022 15:21

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