Predicting and understanding risk of re-offending: the Prisoner Cohort Study

Coid, Jeremy, Yang, Min, Ullrich, Simone , Zhang, Tianqiang, Roberts, Amanda, Roberts, Colin, Rogers, Robert and Farrington, David (2007) Predicting and understanding risk of re-offending: the Prisoner Cohort Study. Project Report. Ministry of Justice.

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Predicting and understanding risk of Reoffending

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Item Type:Paper or Report (Project Report)
Item Status:Live Archive


Risk assessment and risk management are key components of the Government’s
proposals to detain and treat individuals with Dangerous and Severe Personality
Disorder (DSPD). Accuracy in risk assessment plays a major role in identifi cation of
the small group of individuals thought to pose a very high risk of harm to society and
in monitoring their level of risk during and after treatment (Douglas et al., 2005). The
Prisoner Cohort Study was a research project originally commissioned by the Home
Offi ce as part of the DSPD programme to evaluate the predictive accuracy of a range
of currently available risk assessment instruments for future violent and sexual reoffending.
The main aims of the study were to test the accuracy in a UK population
of the risk assessment devices and instruments currently being piloted for use in the
DSPD centres in predicting serious re-offending, and to identify the best instruments in
terms of their accuracy in prediction. Most risk assessment instruments included in this
study were previously validated on US/Canadian male prisoners or forensic patients
without further differentiation. The study also examined the prevalence of offenders
potentially classifi able as having DSPD on the basis of the currently available risk
instruments and personality assessments, and their dangerousness in terms of reoffending
after release into the community. This report focuses on male offenders and
violent re-offending. Data collection for sexual re-offending and for female offenders
was ongoing at the time of the preparation of this report. Findings are therefore
presented for men serving determinate sentences for violent or sexual index offences
interviewed in the fi rst phase of the study (N=1396).

Keywords:Risk, Reoffending, Prisoner Cohort Study, Dangerous and Severe Personality, Risk Assessment, DSPD Programme
Subjects:C Biological Sciences > C810 Applied Psychology
Divisions:College of Social Science > School of Psychology
ID Code:15899
Deposited On:02 Nov 2014 19:32

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