Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants

Csergő, Anna M. and Salguero-Gómez, Roberto and Broennimann, Olivier and Coutts, Shaun R. and Guisan, Antoine and Angert, Amy L. and Welk, Erik and Stott, Iain and Enquist, Brian J. and McGill, Brian and Svenning, Jens-Christian and Violle, Cyrille and Buckley, Yvonne M. and Gurevitch, Jessica (2017) Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants. Ecology Letters, 20 (8). pp. 969-980. ISSN 1461-023X

Full content URL: http://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12794

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Item Type:Article
Item Status:Live Archive

Abstract

Correlative species distribution models are based on the observed relationship between species’ occurrence and macroclimate or other environmental variables. In climates predicted less favourable populations are expected to decline, and in favourable climates they are expected to persist. However, little comparative empirical support exists for a relationship between predicted climate suitability and population performance. We found that the performance of 93 populations of 34 plant species worldwide – as measured by in situ population growth rate, its temporal variation and extinction risk – was not correlated with climate suitability. However, correlations of demographic processes underpinning population performance with climate suitability indicated both resistance and vulnerability pathways of population responses to climate: in less suitable climates, plants experienced greater retrogression (resistance pathway) and greater variability in some demographic rates (vulnerability pathway). While a range of demographic strategies occur within species’ climatic niches, demographic strategies are more constrained in climates predicted to be less suitable.

Keywords:Climate change, COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database, demographic compensation, ecological niche models, matrix population models, population dynamics, spatial demography, species distribution models, species interactions–abiotic stress hypothesis, stress gradient hypothesis
Subjects:C Biological Sciences > C170 Population Biology
C Biological Sciences > C150 Environmental Biology
C Biological Sciences > C180 Ecology
Divisions:College of Science > School of Life Sciences
ID Code:36174
Deposited On:08 Oct 2019 09:54

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