The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5◦C global warming

Pattyn, F and Ritz, C and Hanna, Edward and Asay-Davis, X and DeConto, R and Durand, G and Favier, L and Fettweis, X and Goelzer, H and Golledge, N R and Munneke, P K and Lenaerts, J T M and Nowicki, S and Payne, A J and Robinson, A and Seroussi, H and Trusel, L D and van den Broeke, M (2018) The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5◦C global warming. Nature Climate Change, 8 . pp. 1053-1061. ISSN 1758-678X

Full content URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8

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The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5◦C global warming

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Abstract

Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2°C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the last decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5-2.0°C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance elevation feedback, while for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.

Keywords:ice sheets, climate change, Antarctica, Greenland
Subjects:F Physical Sciences > F860 Climatology
Divisions:College of Science > School of Geography
ID Code:33260
Deposited On:16 Oct 2018 12:36

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