How Nigeria’s 2015 presidential election outcome was forecasted with geodemographics and public sentiment analytics

Ojo, Adegbola and Ibeh, Samuel Chukwuemeka and Kieghe, David (2018) How Nigeria’s 2015 presidential election outcome was forecasted with geodemographics and public sentiment analytics. African Geographical Review . ISSN 1937-6812

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31277 Main_Revised - How Nigerias 2015 Presidential Election Outcome was Forecasted with Geodemographics and Public Sentiment Analytics.pdf

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Item Type:Article
Item Status:Live Archive

Abstract

In 2015, Nigeria held one of the most fiercely contested presidential elections in the nation’s recent democratic history. The outcome of the election was expected to exert significant influence on democratic practices on the African continent. The stiffness of the contest also meant that it was difficult to predict the likely winner of the election. This paper summarizes how an empirical approach was used to forecast the outcome of the election by modeling public sentiment data-set using a geodemographic framework. Results indicate that the main electorates that determined the outcome of the election were situated in thirteen battleground states. Additionally, results showed that two years before the presidential election, Goodluck Jonathan’s public approval ratings on corruption, insecurity, and the economy (the main drivers of the 2015 election) had nose-dived across many of the battleground states. This eventually contributed toward his loss.

Keywords:Geodemographics, Nigeria, Public sentiment analysis, Presidential election, Geographic Information Science, Forecasting
Subjects:L Social studies > L243 Politics of a specific country/region
L Social studies > L713 Human and Social Geography of Africa
G Mathematical and Computer Sciences > G310 Applied Statistics
L Social studies > L700 Human and Social Geography
L Social studies > L200 Politics
Divisions:College of Science > School of Geography
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ID Code:31277
Deposited On:14 Mar 2018 17:06

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