Landscape epidemiology modeling using an agent-based model and a geographic information system

Arifin, S. and Arifin, Rumana and de Alwis Pitts, Dilkushi and Rahman, M. and Nowreen, Sara and Madey, Gregory and Collins, Frank (2015) Landscape epidemiology modeling using an agent-based model and a geographic information system. Land, 4 (2). pp. 378-412. ISSN 2073-445X

Full content URL: http://doi.org/10.3390/land4020378

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Abstract

A landscape epidemiology modeling framework is presented which integrates the
simulation outputs from an established spatial agent-based model (ABM) of malaria with a
geographic information system (GIS). For a study area in Kenya, five landscape scenarios
are constructed with varying coverage levels of two mosquito-control interventions. For
each scenario, maps are presented to show the average distributions of three output indices
obtained from the results of 750 simulation runs. Hot spot analysis is performed to detect
statistically significant hot spots and cold spots. Additional spatial analysis is conducted
using ordinary kriging with circular semivariograms for all scenarios. The integration of
epidemiological simulation-based results with spatial analyses techniques within a single
modeling framework can be a valuable tool for conducting a variety of disease control
activities such as exploring new biological insights, monitoring epidemiological landscape
changes, and guiding resource allocation for further investigation.

Keywords:landscape epidemiology, agent-based models, simulation, modeling, spatial analysis, hot spot analysis, Kriging
Subjects:G Mathematical and Computer Sciences > G150 Mathematical Modelling
C Biological Sciences > C180 Ecology
C Biological Sciences > C910 Applied Biological Sciences
Divisions:College of Science > School of Geography
ID Code:29442
Deposited On:14 Nov 2017 16:21

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