Transmission potential of Rift Valley Fever virus over the course of the 2010 epidemic in South Africa

Metras, Raphaelle and Baguelin, Marc and Edmunds, W. John and Thompson, Peter N. and Kemp, Alan and Pfeiffer, Dirk U. and Collins, Lisa M. and White, Richard G. (2013) Transmission potential of Rift Valley Fever virus over the course of the 2010 epidemic in South Africa. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 19 (6). n/a. ISSN 1080-6040

Full content URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1906.121641

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Abstract

A Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic affecting animals on domestic livestock farms was reported in South Africa during January–August 2010. The first cases occurred after heavy rainfall, and the virus subsequently spread countrywide. To determine the possible effect of environmental conditions and vaccination on RVF virus transmissibility, we estimated the effective reproduction number (Re) for the virus over the course of the epidemic by extending the Wallinga and Teunis algorithm with spatial information. Re reached its highest value in mid-February and fell below unity around mid-March, when vaccination coverage was 7.5%–45.7% and vector-suitable environmental conditions were maintained. The epidemic fade-out likely resulted first from the immunization of animals following natural infection or vaccination. The decline in vector-suitable environmental conditions from April onwards and further vaccination helped maintain Re below unity. Increased availability of vaccine use data would enable evaluation of the effect of RVF vaccination campaigns.

Keywords:Rift Valley Fever
Subjects:D Veterinary Sciences, Agriculture and related subjects > D411 Agricultural Pests and Diseases
D Veterinary Sciences, Agriculture and related subjects > D320 Animal Health
D Veterinary Sciences, Agriculture and related subjects > D323 Animal Pathology
D Veterinary Sciences, Agriculture and related subjects > D300 Animal Science
Divisions:College of Science > School of Life Sciences
ID Code:11912
Deposited On:16 Sep 2013 16:20

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